Реформирование саудовской экономики: итоги и перспективы

Abstract

Received 09.10.2020. The era of oil-based prosperity, which began after the discovery of huge reserves of “black gold” in the Kingdom in 1938 and turned Saudi Arabia from a backward country with an agrarian economy into the most financially and economically powerful Arab state, may end in the foreseeable future. The previous model of development has exhausted itself, the signs of political and socio-economic stagnation have clearly appeared. Barriers to dynamic, balanced and long-term socio-economic development created a threat not only to keep the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia lagging behind the group of developed countries, but to reach the point of no return in this lag and, most likely, increase it. This article focuses on defining the main directions of the positive changes that have begun, identifying problems that have arisen with the achievement of the intended goals. Based on the analysis of the original Saudi materials, the author tried to assess the main trends of change, to determine the trajectories of the key macroeconomic indicators, to reveal the attitude of broad strata of Saudi society in relation to social and economic changes. The forecast part assesses the possible consequences for the socio-economic development of the kingdom of accelerating the process of decarbonization of the world economy, strengthening economic isolationism at the country and regional levels. As for the prospects for Russian economic participation in the implementation of “Vision 2030”, domestic businesses will have to conduct an intense search for their trade and technological niches in the Saudi market. At present, it makes sense, based on an in-depth analysis of Russian capabilities and past failures in the formation of modern Russian-Saudi relations, to propose competitive, well-developed projects–initiatives to the leaders of the KSA, taking into account the programs included in the “Vision 2030”.