초본계 바이오매스 발전사업 타당성 분석 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the economic feasibility of a project assuming 9.9 MW Kenaf biomass power generation by producing Kenaf on approximately 1,100 ha on Saemangeum reclaimed land, manufacturing high-quality Kenaf power generation fuel through ash reduction and torrefaction processes. The Profit Index (PI) method was applied for the economic analysis. Results confirmed that the profitability index (PI) of the business was 0.55, which did not secure economic feasibility. Sensitivity was analyzed using the power plant use rate, facility investment cost, fuel manufacturing cost, as well as REC weight as major variables. As a result, even if the power plant use rate is reflected as 100%, the profitability index is 0.86, which does not secure economic feasibility. If the facility investment cost is lowered from 39.24 million USD to 0.49 million USD, economic feasibility is secured, However, the possibility of realization is significantly low. If the fuel manufacturing cost is reduced from 241.13 thousand won/ton to 40.50 thousand won/ton, economic feasibility is secured. However, it is difficult to realize because it requires high technology development cost and time. Regarding the REC weight, economic feasibility can be secured at 1.96, similar to the REC weight “2” currently given to the power generation of unused forest biomass. As a result of analyzing the complex sensitivity using the power plant use rate as well as REC weight as the main variables, economic feasibility can be secured in the section wherein the REC weight is lower than “1” when the power plant use rate is 80% or more. REC weighting, continuous technology development, as well as policy support for Kenaf biomass power generation, expected to play a critical role as a greenhouse gas sink in the future, are highly needed.