실물옵션을 활용한 부동산 개발사업의 경제성 분석

Abstract

1. CONTENTS
 (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
 The objective of this research is to explore the uncertainty and the irreversibility of the benefits of investment in the office building development project and to find that the economic analysis using real options provides investors with a tool to create direct and useful information.
 (2) RESEARCH METHOD
 An empirical analysis was conducted on the office building being developed by Company A, which is a state-owned company. The economic feasibility was analyzed using the DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) method. In an actual project, it is difficult to identify the time of when the project will be completed, and the possibilities of events which may occur are infinite. To consider such factors, an infinite number of options are respectively applied in real options in the economic analysis. The value of the option of the development project was projected along with the optimal investment time.
 (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS
 It was found in the research that in the case of European options, the economic feasibility was secured only with the NPV(Net Present Value) method. Considering the volatility of the vacancy rate, which is presumed to have the greatest impact on development projects, the project value including the options was calculated. The value of the project increased, and the economic feasibility was secured by accommodating the volatility of the future uncertainty and the strategic value of the project.
 2. RESULTS
 The disadvantage of European options, which are used in the analysis of the economic feasibility of a real estate development project, is that European options can be exercised only on a pre-determined maturity date. To complement the disadvantage, American options which may be exercised at any time were analyzed in this research. It is explained that American options may be an alternative, which provides flexibility in decision-making by allowing more objective decision making from an investor's point of view. It was examined whether the empirical data from the analysis of Company A is applicable to actual projects. The research proposes practical measures for project developers for the investment and the implementation. The research also suggests the necessity for the qualitative review of the contribution to the public development, through decision making based on quantitative analysis. The data on the vacancy rate, which shows the profitability of the business, was obtained. The condition of the current real estate market was reflected more realistically by surveying and applying the changes in the vacancy rates over 48 quarterly periods, and the ultimate research result could be presented more reliably. A further inquiry is needed on the fact that the volatility of the vacancy rate used in this research has a significant effect on the valuation, which is left as a subject for future research.