Abstract
Observations indicate that climate change has already affected Arctic ecosystems. Their sustainability in the 21st century was assessed by analyzing climate projections and providing permafrost and vegetation model simulations. The testing of 27 CMIP6 climate models revealed 19 top-ranked models that reproduce observed climate change in the Arctic with small errors. A region-optimized ensemble projection was constructed on their basis. The vegetation and permafrost sustainability indices were developed for climate change conditions, model simulations were performed, and digital maps of the indices were constructed. They allow assessing investment risks in the projects of socioeconomic and infrastructural development in the Arctic under conditions of changing climate.
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