Realized climatic niche of North American plant taxa lagged behind climate during the end of the Pleistocene

Today, urban greenery is at the center of attention, especially in the context of climate change. Shaped in large part by natural factors, the herb layer of public parks is a part of urban greenery that is the most sensitive to climate and soil condition changes. In this paper, we present a study intended to answer how resilient is the species composition and herb layer structure against the soil and climate condition changes in parks. To this end, we analyzed Ellenberg and Zarzycki’s ecological index numbers for species recorded in different groups in terms of historical-geographical, life forms, prevalence within the flora of Poland, and relationships with different vegetation types (phytoassociation classes) in comparison to the conditions present in parks. It was found that a large part of various species groups showed an optima and ecological tolerance spectra that went beyond the park conditions, indicating that at least some park vegetation can be expected to show resilience to changing conditions. However, changes in temperature and humidity will alter the composition and structure of the park herb layer. The direction of changes in climate and soil conditions can be decisive for herb layer transformation directions. With rising temperatures, humidity can be crucial. Poor soil moisture conditions will promote an increased share of foreign, synanthropic species, while local natural and semi-natural species will disappear. When climate change that leads to a decrease in temperatures is concerned, it is temperature and not humidity that will be the key factor in the transformation of park herb layer species compositions. The herb layer of Krakow’s parks will have the least resilience to changes in conditions within local non-synanthropic species, rare species and geophytes and to some extent also forest and meadow species.

In this paper the possible effects of climate change on Canada’s water resources, and the attendant implications for hydropower production are discussed. A change in climatic conditions could spawn drastic changes in the way that the Canadian hydroelectric sub-sector manages the operations of its hydropower stations. Supporting arguments draw largely on four modelling studies in which general circulation models (GCMs) and hydrological models have been used to predict significant climatic and hydrological changes in Canada’s major watersheds. The areas investigated include the interior of British Columbia and southern Yukon (Coulson, 1997), the basins surrounding James Bay in Quebec (Singh, 1988), the Great Lakes Basin in Ontario (Cohen, 1986), and the Saskatchewan sub-basin which transects the provincial borders of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba (Cohen, 1991). A synthesis of the results of these studies is used to decipher the multitude of annual and seasonal changes in runoff, precipitation and evaporation that may occur in the future. There are indications that the annual volume of runoff and hydropower capacity may increase in northern regions, and decrease in southern regions. As for seasonal changes, northern areas may see a more intense spring runoff due to an increase in snowpack, while southern areas may experience heavier winter runoff due to larger winter rainfalls. A greater number of spring or winter floods could force hydropower installations to divert flood water to their spillways more frequently, amounting to missed opportunities to produce energy. The frequent occurrence of extreme events such as large storms and flash floods could also jeopardize the integrity of certain hydropower stations. Other problems such as melting glaciers, ice jams, sediment loading and hydraulic surging could adversely affect the operations of hydropower stations. These problems may be exacerbated by increases in demand for domestic and irrigation water, as well as energy for interior cooling. The paper concludes by enumerating mitigatory and managerial strategies to alleviate the possible difficulties faced by the hydropower sub-sector.

This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent; and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the MannKendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3˚C to 0.6˚C (1.2˚C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.

Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.

How climate variations are reflected in root zone storage capacities

The chalk of the English lowlands is the most important of the British aquifers. It is the principal source of water supply in much of southern and eastern England, as well as sustaining a network of chalk streams that, ecologically, are of international importance. Replenishment of the aquifer normally takes place during the winter months when evapotranspiration is low and the soil moisture deficit is negligible. In south-eastern England the margin between annual rainfall and evaporation losses is typically small and inter-annual variability in recharge totals can be very large. It is estimated that the average annual effective rainfall in the Chilterns is around 200 mm (Anon. 2003) and this modest figure – about 30% of average rainfall – is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. Recent scenarios produced by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (Hulme et al. 2002) suggest that this sensitivity may increase if temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns change. Given the importance of chalk aquifers, in the context of both biodiversity and water supply, it follows that there is considerable interest in the possible impacts of climate change. Climate change scenarios are produced using increasingly sophisticated models but, given the expenditure required to address the predicted effects of climate change on water resources, policy-makers and managers will also look to the scientific community to demonstrate that there is evidence of change in observational records. The UK is blessed with extensive climatological data, with a number of temperature and rainfall records exceeding 250 years. However, with respect to the measurement of river flow, records are relatively short – the average record length held by the National River Flow Archive is less than 23 years and only 11 records exceed 70 years in length. The case for using long records is a strong one. For example, following a study of trends in UK floods, Robson (2002) concluded that a 40-year record (which exceeds that typically available) was insufficiently long to distinguish between the possible effects of climate change and natural short-term variability. Long records provide the greatest opportunity for trend identification, but a facet of their longevity is that the record is more likely to have been influenced by factors unconnected to possible changes in the climate – for example, inconsistent measurement, increasing abstraction and progressive catchment urbanisation. Consequently, it is important to establish the homogeneity of the time-series, particularly so in the case of informal records, where the data are unlikely to have been subject to the same level of scrutiny as those taken from the modern gauging network. Although there is a paucity of long records of observations that have been formally measured, reviewed and archived, there is considerable material giving contemporary accounts of historical floods and droughts awaiting discovery. The British Hydrological Society’s “Chronology of British hydrological events” (www.dundee/ geography/cbhe) is a significant step forward in locating and collating this information for public use (to date there are over 7000 entries). In addition to descriptive accounts, the river gauging authorities (principally the environment agencies) and others in the private sector (e.g. water companies) may have informal level or flow records that can usefully extend or supplement formally gauged records. This paper outlines the assembly of a unique record of flow from the Chiltern springs at Wendover, Buckinghamshire, and describes the flow patterns evident in a series of over 90 years. Globally there are few records that describe flow variability in the latter part of the nineteenth century as completely as the Wendover series and an exceptional drought episode that occurred during that era, described here, is not well documented elsewhere. The paper concludes by discussing recent events in the context of this long historical record.

The building sector is largely responsible for energy consumption and carbon emissions. As a result, the European Union has developed several directives, including an updated Energy Efficiency of Buildings Directive 2018/844/EU, designed to reduce the energy demand of buildings and improve the energy efficiency of their facilities by integrating renewable energy. This PhD thesis shows a methodology development for ZEB buildings, framed within the European regulations. The target building is an existing Zero Energy Building and Zero Carbon Emissions building called LUCIA, located on the university campus in Valladolid, Spain. The building LUCIA has the highest innovative technologies in energy systems, design and construction elements. It is currently considered one of the top three buildings with the highest LEED certification in the world. According to current European regulations, buildings will become self-sufficient in terms of energy after 2020. This PhD thesis will help to understand the changes in energy consumption within a long-term timeframe, for such zero-energy buildings. LUCIA ZEB is designed to supply electricity, cooling and heating needs through solar energy, Photovoltaic Systems (PV), biomass and an Earth-Air Heat eXchanger (EAHX), besides a Combined Heat Power (CHP). An analysis of energy efficiency, carbon emissions, and operating costs of renewable energy technologies implemented in a multipurpose zero-energy building is presented in this PhD. The monitoring data, obtained by dynamic monitoring through SCADA was implemented in the control room of the building, and provides the necessary information on the needs of electricity, cooling and heating. All the renewable energy systems studied showed positive benefits in terms of economic savings and reductions in carbon emissions, although these benefits are dependent on the particular features of the building, the Smart Control, SCADA, and the climate. Therefore, the design of these strategies for the new ZEB must keep these factors in mind. The combined use of photovoltaics, biomass, and EAHX reduces carbon emissions in the ZEB LUCIA building from 123 to 170 tons/year compared to other non-renewable fuels. This results in economic savings in the operation of energy systems from 43 to 50 thousand €/year. The classification of buildings within the ZEB target, by means of indicators, is a strong and useful tool. These indicators are very useful for the energy analysis of the nZEB according to the requirements of the European standard and for comparison with other nZEB. Once all of the energy parameters of the building have been obtained by dynamic monitoring, the construction model is simulated with DesignBuilderV5 and its EnergyPlus building energy engine. Based on this data, an energy balance of ZEB is carried out, which will contribute to planning preventive actions against real energy consumption. Thus, improving the management and control of both the building and its systems. The classification of the building by indicators demonstrates how the LUCIA building is included within the requirements established by the EPBD. The primary energy indicator obtained is 67 kWh/m2-year, and 121 kWh/m2-year for renewable energy generation, with respect to 55 kWh/m2-year and 45 kWh/m2-year set as reference in Europe. The Renewable Energy Ratio (RER) is 0.66. Over the last few years, studies have predicted an increase in the overall air temperature due to climate change. Today’s society is already sensing this change, which could have a negative impact on the environment. Efforts are being made to seek all possible measures to curve it. One of the consequences of this temperature rise is the indoor comfort within buildings. This may cause higher energy consumption and operational costs, while reducing the useful lifetime of air-conditioning equipment. The possible effects of climate change on its zero energy status, is studied in this PhD thesis. The calibrated building model is simulated and the energy consumption for 2020, 2050 and 2080 is analysed within the climatic conditions of Valladolid, a continental climate. The development of expected changes in climatic conditions due to climate change, have been obtained through the methodology developed by the University of Southampton called CCworldweathergen. This PhD thesis shows quantitatively how the demand for cooling would increase about 25% by 2050 and 2080, while heating would decrease. This will increase the overall demand for burning more biomass to cover the added demand in absorption cooling systems. Furthermore, the previous excess generated electricity of the building by photovoltaics would then be totally consumed within the building due to the increased demand. This implies that the installed systems will operate for longer hours, increasing maintenance and replacement costs. Therefore it is possible to quantify expected changes in energy consumption and anticipate this change by preparing preventive interventions, ultimately improving the management and control of both the energy systems and the building. It will also be possible to verify that the building under study will continue to meet ZEB requirements in the future, as is the case in the LUCIA building.

Modelling the long-term effect of climate change on a zero energy and carbon dioxide building through energy efficiency and renewables

Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China

Simulating the cumulative effects of potential open-pit mining and climate change on streamflow and water quality in a mountainous watershed

At present, climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues as it poses potential threat to different sectors of economy at global level. Agriculture being an open activity is primarily dependent on climatic factors and change in climatic conditions affects the production, quality and quantity of crop production in an area. This paper attempts to study effects of only two parameters of climate i.e. temperature and rainfall on agricultural production in northwest region of India. Northwest region comprising of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir states is the greatest food bowl of India contributing to its food security. The analysis of mean monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures (1901-2006) shows no significant change in temperature and rainfall conditions from 1901 to 1960; but afterward the change is more pronounced. On the whole any significant change in climatic conditions will not only challenge the food production of the region but also challenge the country’s food security situation.

Projected production responses were derived for confined swine and beef and for milk-producing dairy cattle based on climate change projections in daily ambient temperature. Milk production from dairy cattle and the number of days to grow swine and beef cattle were simulated. Values were obtained for three central United States transects and three climate scenarios which were based on projected mean daily ambient temperatures associated with a baseline, doubling, and tripling of atmospheric greenhouse gas (CO2) levels for the period June 1 to October 31. For swine, a slight northwest to southeast gradient is evident. Transect 1 (west side) shows no losses under the doubling scenario and losses up to 22.4% under the tripling scenario. Transect 3 (east side) displays losses of over 70% under the tripling scenario. For beef, positive benefits were simulated in Transect 1 with increasing temperatures, although a northwest to southeast gradient was also evident. For dairy, no positive benefits in milk production were found due to climate effects. Projected production declines ranged from 1% to 7.2%, depending on location. However, ranges in predicted differences were less than those simulated for beef and swine. These simulations suggest regional differences in animal production due to climate change will be apparent. For small changes in climate conditions, animals will likely be able to adapt, while larger changes in climate conditions will likely dictate that management strategies be implemented. Exploration of the effects of climate changes on livestock should allow producers to adjust management strategies to reduce potential impact and economic losses due to environmental changes.

Global climate change could be harmful to agriculture. In particular, water availability and irrigation development under changed climatic conditions already pose a growing problem for crop production in the Mediterranean region. Wheat is the major significant crop in terms of food security. Therefore, in relation to these issues, this review gives an overview of climate change effects on wheat production in the Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Future climate data generated by a general circulation model (e.g., CGCM2) and regional climate models (e.g., RCM/MRI, CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS) have been used to quantify the wheat growth and the soil-water-balance around the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey. The effects of climate change on the water demand and yield of wheat were predicted using the detailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant). The Soil evaporation was estimated using the E-DiGOR (Evaporation and Drainage investigations at Ground of Ordinary Rainfed-areas) model. This review revealed that the changes in climatic conditions and CO2 concentration have caused parallel changes in the wheat yield. A close correspondence between measured and simulated yield data was obtained. The grain yield increased by about 24.7% (measured) and 21.9% (modelled) under a two-fold CO2 concentration and the current climatic conditions. However, this increase in the yield was counteracted by a temperature rise of 3 °C. Wheat biomass decreases under the future climatic conditions and the enhanced CO2 concentration, regardless of the model used. Without CO2 effects, grain yield also decreases for all the models. By contrast, the combined impact of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on grain yield of wheat was positive, but varied with the climatic models. Among the models, the CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS denote the highest (24.9%) and lowest (6.3%) increases in grain yield respectively. The duration of the regular crop-growing season for wheat was 24, 21, and 27 days shorter as calculated for the future, mainly caused by the projected air temperature rise of 2.2, 2.4, and 3 °C for a growing period by the 2070s for CGCM2, CCSR-NIES and TERCH-RAMS respectively. The experimental results show large increases in the water use efficiency of wheat, due to the increases in CO2 concentration and air temperature. Despite the increased evaporative demand of the atmosphere, the increases in water use efficiency can be attributed to the shorter growing days and a reduction in the transpiration due to stomata closure. Unlike reference evapotranspiration and potential soil evaporation, actual evaporation from bare soils was estimated to reduce by 16.5% in response to a decrease in rainfall and consequently soil wetness in the future, regardless of the increases in the evaporative demand. It can be concluded that to maintain wheat production in the future, the water stress must be managed by proper irrigation management techniques.

Purpose. To determine promising directions for the development of the technical and technological foundations of soil cultivation in the conditions of climate change. Methods. Monographic, abstract-logical, graph-analytical, induction and deduction, regression analysis of results. Results. Modern soil cultivation technologies are considered, their advantages and disadvantages, development trends are defined. It has been established that climate change will significantly affect the terms of execution of works, the conditions of interaction of working bodies of technical means with the soil environment. The parabolic relationship between traction resistance and soil moisture means that climate change will increase fuel costs for tillage. Therefore, the further search for new technical and technological solutions should be aimed at reducing energy consumption and preventing physical degradation of soils, substantiating structural and functional schemes of technical means for soil cultivation, parameters of working bodies and modes of operation, under which the number of dust particles in the surface layer of the soil will be minimal. Conclusions. The main direction of the development of the technical and technological base for the production of plant products in the conditions of climate change is the harmonization of the interaction of the working bodies of tillage machines with the soil, which will ensure the reduction of physical soil degradation and energy consumption to create a favorable environment for plant development and crop formation. In the conditions of global climate change, agricultural production is being reoriented towards precision farming systems, therefore, crop production technologies should be based on targeted tillage with the simultaneous introduction of a full dose of mineral nutrition into the seed sowing area for the planned harvest, sowing of seeds and preservation of plant residues on the surface of the soil for protection it from overheating and loss of moisture. Keywords: technical means, soil cultivation technologies, interaction of working bodies with the soil, soil moisture, soil resistance, energy consumption, physical soil degradation.

A comparative quantitative study on the impact of two of the most important factors threatening fresh water resources (urbanization and climate change) is presented. Using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) model, the individual impacts of the development of urban areas and the changes in the climatic conditions on several components of the urban hydrological cycle (runoff, initial abstraction with a focus on groundwater recharge from precipitations) are assessed with a daily time step at the scale of Algiers during the period 1987–2016. For the presented case study, it was found that the changes in the climatic conditions impacted all three components of the hydrological cycle with a higher magnitude than the development of the urban area. A strong correlation between groundwater recharge (and runoff) and the climatic conditions is observed. Moreover, it is estimated that potential natural groundwater recharge in constructed areas can be higher than that in non-constructed ones; an aspect that can shift with changes in the climatic conditions (particularly the changes in rainfall intensity and frequency).