Анализ кредитоспособности корпоративного заемщика: комплексный подход

Abstract

The cancellation of regulatory relief due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which allowed banks to save on reserves for restructured loans, did not significantly affect the stability of the system in 2021. At the same time, there remains the probability of certain types of systemic risks, including credit risks. During the pandemic the Russian business debts increased by 14% and reached 62.6% of the countryʼs GDP, which significantly increased credit risks for banks. There is a high concentration of corporate liabilities in Russia - a great part of the debt falls on a small number of large borrowers who are serviced by large banks. It is found that reducing the credit risks and increasing the credit activity of market participants can be achieved both by methods of macroeconomic regulation and by improving the mechanism for analyzing the creditworthiness of corporate borrowers at the level of credit institutions. Measures to minimize credit risks are listed. The formula for the final calculation of the level of credit risk is given. The indicators are analyzed on the basis of the Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) and on the basis of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), the values of debt burden indicators are considered. There is offered a model of such an analysis based on a mixed complex-individual model including an assessment of industry and structural indicators based on expert opinion, existing threats from competitors or the market, transparency of the borrower's activities, as well as the expertise of leading international rating agencies. The model allows predicting the future position of the borrower in the market, as well as taking into account the specifics of lending conditions.