ОПТИМИЗАЦИЯ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ РАЗВИТИЯ НЕФТЯНОЙ ОТРАСЛИ

Abstract

The article develops a methodology of determining the optimal indicators of the investment program for the development of the region oil industry. The issues of assessing the effectiveness of capital investments in the exploration and development of oil fields, taking into account the delayed and distributed over time impact of such investments on the volume of crude oil production, were investigated. The methodological basis of the study is mathematical modeling of investment processes in the oil industry using distributed lag models. Much attention is paid to the study of the influence of random factors on the effectiveness of capital investments and the parameters of the optimal investment program. The article develops a methodology that allows excluding the vector of unobservable system parameters from the equations of the mathematical model and takes into account the change in the nature of the influence of random factors when replacing endogenous parameters of the model. The proposed model of the investment process shows how the efficiency of capital investments in the development of the region oil industry increases depending on the accepted structure of such investments lag. The conclusion indicates the possibilities for improving the efficiency of investments using the developed model. The authors propose to synthesize the global optimization method with the included distributed lag model, which is used according to the method improved in the article.