Математична модель оптимізації технологічного розвитку нафтогазової галузі

Abstract

The main causes for decrease in the hydrocarbons production in Ukraine are the transition of most fields, giving their major production and having major reserves, to the late stage of development, which is characterized by significant depletion (80–85% of the initial reserves), and the results of exploration work give mainly very small, small, and medium deposits at considerable depths of 4.5–6 km. Under these conditions, it is urgent to solve the problem of forecasting the development of fuel industries by developing economic and mathematical models of prediction of the processes of diffusion of efficient technologies in the oil and gas industries of country's power complex. For the first time in Ukraine, we constructed a mathematical model of the time dependence of volume of hydrocarbon production during a limited period of the development of a field. We used here binary variables to determine the critical points of such dependence, which enables one to consider the problem of optimal planning of the discovery and development of oil and natural gas fields. Furthermore, we created a model of the optimization of development of the mining industry with a cost criterion to determine the expedient time of commissioning of deposits with preassigned indicators of the time dependence of production volume. On this basis, the L.V. Kantorovich model was constructed, which, in the assortment vector, binds mining volumes with production volumes of hydrocarbon reserves, whose increase is a prerequisite for the enhancement of production in the country. Using the described models, we performed test calculations for three types (small, medium, large) of new fields, the development of which should satisfy the production volumes by the stages of period of modeling of the industry development. In order to ensure the forecasted total production volumes, it is necessary to start commissioning both small and medium-size deposits at the initial stages of development of the industry, which requires considerable investment in prospecting and exploration.