지역의 소득수준과 주택가격이 출산율에 미치는 영향

Abstract

This study constructed a regional panel data set in order to investigate the impact of regional income and house price on fertility rate in 17 cities and provinces from 2013 to 2021. The fixed effects regression model is used to estimate the effect of intrinsic characteristics of individuals in the panel data set. According to previous studies, the increase in housing prices in the region negatively affects the fertility rate, but it is necessary to analyze it in connection with the income level of the region rather than simply considering housing prices. The results show that PIR has statistically significant negative impact on fertility rate. GRNI per capita also shows significant negative effect on marriage rate and fertility rate. It implied that regions with active economic activities and high house prices are more likely to have low rates of marriage and childbirth. Furthermore, the age at which a woman first gets married and private education expenditure have corresponded negatively to fertility rates. Our results suggest that each city and province should monitor the supply and demand of housing in order to prevent housing prices from soaring and substantially provide housing financial support to lower PIR. We conclude that the high fertility of region might be achieved by stable jobs and affordable housing for the young people.