시계열모형에 의한 서울 아파트시장 가격예측 분석

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to make a model to forecasting apartment trade price and household rent price in apartment housing market using ARIMA model. On the basis of those models, I tried to forecast the fluctuations of short-term apartment trade price and household rent price in Seoul apartment market. To analyze the ARIMA model, quarterly data during 2011 1/4∼2023 4/4 are used for identification, estimation, diagnosis, and prediction of the ARIMA model. Using ARIMA model, the outcome ARIMA(1,1,0) model is applied to Sepol apartment trade price in the rate of apartment trade price forecasting model, and ARIMA(1,1,1) model is applied to Seoul apartment household rent price in the rate of apartment rent price. According to the forecast results of Seoul apartment trade price and apartment household rent price in the ARIMA model, looking at the quarterly rate of change in Seoul apartment sales prices, it appears that they will continue to go up the 2024 1/4, and will continue to rise but without significant fluctuations. Looking at the quarterly trend of Seoul apartment rental prices on the 2024 1/4 and continue until the 2024 4/4, and the upward trend will be larger than Seoul apt sale price. While the government's housing policy is sluggish, Seoul apartment sales prices and Jeonse prices are expected to be affected by a decrease in apartment supply and interest rates due to a decrease in permits and occupancy this year.