Перспективы развития системного мирового экономического кризиса

Abstract

The work is devoted to forecasting the prospects for the development of a systemic economic crisis of the world economy. Forecasting is carried out on the base of N. Kondratyev econometric models of cycles in the world economy and the economies of the largest countries of the modern world. The results obtained allow us to establish that the beginning of Kondratiev’s upward halfwaves relates to the years 1999–2001. The expected duration of the period of the modern Kondratyev cycle is 50–54 years. The results of the study of the dynamics of the world economy, the results of studies of the economic dynamics of developed countries shows that the start of the upward half-waves of the Kondratieff cycle is expected in 1999–2001 goals. It can be associated with the transition to dominance of the fifth technological order, the emergence of the sixth way of life and the beginning of the death of the fourth technological way. The completion of the downward wave of this Kondratiev cycle and the systemic global economic crisis associated with the transition to the dominance of the sixth technological order should expected in 2049–2055. Since the likelihood of economic crises with business cycles, financial and investment cycles begins to increase with the transition to the downward half-wave of the Kondratyev cycle, from 2024–2027 one can expect a deepening of periodic crisis phenomena in the global economy.