한강유역 지천홍수예보모형 개발 및 매개변수 최적화

Abstract

Abstract In this study, comprehensive flood forecasting model for main tributaries in the Han river was developed using the model struc-tures of comprehensive 4 rivers flood forecasting model newly coded in 2012. The main tributaries in the Han river is Joong-RangCheon, Wang-Seok Cheon, Tan Cheon, and An-Yang Cheon. The optimized parameters in the tributaries were proposed as well.In the tributaries, because of the short forecasting time, the model parameters tend to be determined in each basin. Therefore, theoptimized parameters in the newly developed flood forecasting model were proposed. Storage function method is also utilized inthe comprehensive flood forecasting model with the combination of the subsurface flow model which is for calculating infil-tration, percolation, and groundwater flow. Therefore, the newly developed flood forecasting is applicable in the long-term riverflow forecasting. The 2-stage optimization was proposed. In the first stage, parameters in the subsurface flow model were opti-mized using a long-term rainfall-runoff data, and the parameters for the storage function method were optimized in the secondstage using the rainfall events. A range of the optimized parameters was presented, from which the sensitivities and the param-eters could be estimated. However, the understandable interpretation about the ranged parameters was not possible. Therefore, therepresentative parameters were proposed using weighted average, middle value, and representative rainfall events. As a result, theparameter value which provide the smallest error was selected as the final proposed parameter. It could improve the efficiency ofthe runoff forecasting in the practical application.Key words : 4 river comprehensive flood forecasting model, flood forecasting model in main tributaries, storage function method,subsurface flow model, parameter optimization