정부재정지원 제한대학 선정이 지역발전에 미치는 영향

Abstract

This study empirically conducted the post-importance evaluation of policies using the Synthetic Control Method(SCM) to determine the impact of government financial support restriction policy on regional development. The Unit of analysis are Donghae-si, Gwangyang-si, Namwon-si, Yeongam-gun, and Geumsan-gun. The analysis data related to regional development included the period from 2005 to 2019. The result variables are regional development divided into industrial advancement(the ratio of knowledge-based industries) and regional innovation(the number of applications for intellectual property rights). And the predictor variables included internal and external economic growth factors, socio-cultural factors, government financial factors and spatial factors that may affect regional development.
 As a result, both aspects of industrial advancement and regional innovation showed negative effects in the region selected as government financial support restrictions universities . First of all, industrial advancement generally turned to a decreasing trend after the fiscal support restriction policy was implemented in 2011, and as a result of SCM analysis, the actual value was lower than the hypothetical value after the first restricted university was selected in all regions except Geumsan-gun (Jungbu University). In addition, in the case of regional innovation, which had been on a gentle increase before, there was a sharp change after the implementation of the government financial support restriction policy. And SCM analysis showed that the actual value are lower than the virtual value after the first restriction university was selected in all regions except Geumsan-gun (Jungbu University). These results indicate that universities in the region have a close relationship with the development of local industries through industry-university cooperation. In particular, vulnerable areas can first be victims of good faith in a situation where university restructuring is inevitable due to a decrease in the school-age population due to a decrease in the fertility rate. Therefore, given that university policy and regional development are not separate, an integrated policy approach from the perspective of balanced regional development is needed to minimize side effects on vulnerable areas.