قياس محددات البطالة في العراق للمدة (2004-2021) باستخدام نموذج VAR

Abstract

The problem of unemployment is one of the most prominent and dangerous issues that many societies suffer from، regardless of their political، economic، and social systems، and their degree of economic development. It has become one of the major problems that most countries of the world are exposed to، because of its significant effects on the economic، social، and political conditions. For the country، this research aims to investigate the determinants of unemployment over the time period (2004-2021)، by identifying the most important of these determinants، as well as contributing to the economic process and eliminating part of the unemployment rates that Iraq suffers from، which represent a security and economic threat، as The research problem is represented by the continuous rise in unemployment rates. The research is based on the hypothesis that “there is an inverse relationship between economic determinants and unemployment rates.” The study reached many results، the most important of which is the existence of an inverse relationship between inflation rates، gross domestic product، public expenditures، and exchange rates. Trade and unemployment، as well as the existence of a direct relationship between the real interest rate and unemployment. The standard model has concluded that there is a long-term relationship between economic variables and unemployment rates، as well as the existence of a one-way causal relationship between government spending، gross domestic product.،and unemployment.