Національний феномен рентабельності банків в умовах війни

Abstract

The aim of the article is to study the reasons for the profitability of the banking sector in the conditions of wartime, as well as to assess the effectiveness of the means of the State-based regulation to ensure financial stability. The theoretical approaches to the analysis of instruments of influence on indicators of stability of financial institutions in conditions of permanent external shocks are generalized. It is identified that the main factor in increasing the profitability of the banking sector of Ukraine during the wartime was the placement of excess liquidity in low-risk and high-yield financial assets, among which NBU certificates of deposit predominate. It is substantiated that the high attractiveness of these assets was formed as a result of maintaining a high level of the discount rate for a long period of time and the presence of a high interest margin on transactions with certificates of deposit. The consequences for the financial system and the economy of the phenomenon of increased profitability in conditions of low credit activity are determined. The positive consequences include an increase in the level of capitalization and financial stability of banking institutions. Among the negative ones, the inability to use the resource potential of the banking system for investment recovery of the economy is identified. The consequences of the use of instruments of fiscal redistribution of excess profits in favor of the State budget through an increase in the tax burden for banks are analyzed. Measures to equalize the yield on NBU certificates of deposit and domestic government bonds to accumulate excess liquidity and reduce lending during the wartime are proposed. The need to reorient demand from short-term to long-term government securities to cover the budget deficit in a non-emission way has been determined, which justifies the use of such a model of redistribution of financial resources accumulated by the banking system under the conditions of the wartime economy. It is emphasized that the use of this mechanism at the stage of post-wartime economic recovery will cause negative consequences in the form of the effect of crowding out private investment by the State and the slowed down economic growth.