Abstract
A variety of an environment the territory of Krasnodar Krai contributes to the development of an economic complex. At the same time, in the territory of Krasnodar Krai dangerous exogenous and seismogenic processes therefore the problem of assessment of potential risks as bases of sustainable development of the region are relevant can develop. The main objectives of a research came down to assessment of existence and degree of activity of these or those geological processes defining safety of construction objects, to drawing up a set of the cards having theoretical and applied value and also application of a technique of integrated assessment of risk which algorithm is adapted for use of modern geographic information systems. The final map of the integrated assessment of potential geological risk showed that the studied area reflects different potential hazards due to differences in natural (economic, social) indicators. A total of 4 areas were identified that differ from each other in terms of potential geological risk and possible or mandatory risk management measures. The potential risks considered in this paper are confined to zones of development of dangerous geological processes and are not linked to the level of technogenic development of a particular area. However, the identified potential risk can be taken into account both for the calculation of individual risks and for any impact objects. In this case, the vulnerability of the affected object will depend on the conditional probability of damage by dangerous geological processes. The results obtained can be used at the stages of territorial planning, making planning decisions, selecting locations for engineering surveys and conducting regional monitoring of dangerous geological processes.
Highlights
The potential risks considered in this paper are confined to zones of development of dangerous geological processes and are not linked to the level of technogenic development of a particular area
The identified potential risk can be taken into account both for the calculation of individual risks and for any impact objects
The vulnerability of the affected object will depend on the conditional probability of damage by dangerous geological processes
Summary
АННОТАЦИЯ Разнообразие природных условий территория Краснодарского края способствует развитию хозяйственного комплекса. Вместе с тем на территории Краснодарского края могут развиваться опасные экзогенные и сейсмогенные процессы, поэтому проблема оценки потенциальных рисков как основы устойчивого развития региона актуальна. Основные задачи исследования сводились к оценке наличия и степени активности тех или иных геологических процессов, определяющих безопасность объектов строительства, составлению комплекта карт, имеющих теоретическое и прикладное значение, а также применение методики интегральной оценки риска, алгоритм которой адаптирован для использования современных геоинформационных систем. Итоговая карта интегральной оценки потенциального геологического риска показала, что изучаемая территория из-за различий в природных (экономических, социальных) показателях отражает неодинаковый потенциал опасностей. Рассматриваемые в работе потенциальные риски приурочены к зонам развития опасных геологических процессов и не привязаны к уровню техногенной освоенности того или иного района. Тем не менее установленный потенциальный риск может быть учтён как для расчёта индивидуальных рисков, так и для любых объектов воздействия. КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: опасные геологические процессы, интегральная оценка, потенциальные риски, картирование
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