ВПЛИВ РОСІЙСЬКОЇ АГРЕСІЇ НА ДОЛАРИЗАЦІЮ В УКРАЇНІ

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the impact of the russian aggression against Ukraine on the dollarization of the Ukrainian economy. Among the reasons for the traditionally high level of dollarization in Ukraine are frequent currency and financial crises with sharp devaluation of hryvnia, distrust in the national currency, the banking system and the economic policy in general, and the lack of structural reforms. Recently, the russian war against Ukraine has become a new key factor. Russian aggression against Ukraine is proposed to be divided into three stages – the beginning of the aggression in 2014–2015; the war in the Eastern Ukraine in 2016–2022; the full-scale invasion since 2022. The dynamics of dollarization in Ukraine in these periods was calculated using the official statistical data of the National Bank of Ukraine and was compared with the dynamics of two main economic factors – the exchange rate and inflation, as well as the key political events of that time. The first stage of the russian aggression is characterized by a significant increase of dollarization, a high devaluation of hryvnia and a high inflation. The second stage showed a gradual decrease of dollarization indicators, a relative stabilization of the floating exchange rate of hryvnia and a decrease of inflation. During the third stage of the russian aggression since 2022 there was a new increase of the dollarization indicators with a consequent decrease due to a fixed exchange rate of hryvnia and an adaptation of business to the conditions of war. So, the russian aggression against Ukraine has a negative impact on the level of dollarization of the Ukrainian economy. However, after stabilization of the exchange rate of hryvnia, we can observe a gradual decline of dollarization. In particular, after the jump at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the level of dollarization has stabilized and is gradually decreasing in 2023 due to a long-term falling of the inflation rate, an exchange rate stability, significant volumes of international aid received and expected in the future, an adaptation of business to the conditions of war and a stabilization of the expectations of economic agents. The future success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the liberation of the occupied territories will have a positive effect on the expectations of economic subjects, and, as a result, on the further gradual decrease of the level of dollarization.