Взаимодействие РФ и АСЕАН в современных условиях

Abstract

The author analyzes reactions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The results show that positions of ASEAN member states are poorly correlated with the dynamics of their trade with the Russian Federation. Thus, despite the fact that the political reaction of the Association member states to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict remains mostly neutral, ASEAN’s trade turnover with Russia decreased by 15,4% in 2022 compared to 2021. This was due to the lessening of Russian imports (a sharp decline occurred in Q2 2022). Supplies to Russia decreased from all ASEAN member states, while exports from Russia shrank to Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The largest decrease in trade volumes in March 2022 was with Vietnam. In general, the reduction in bilateral trade was not destructive due to Russia’s modest share in ASEAN’s trade turnover (less than 1% on average for 2012–2023). Trade dynamics were largely influenced by US, Japan and EU sanctions against the Russian Federation, which affected payment and insurance transactions, maritime transportation, as well as reputational risks of multinational companies operating in East Asia