도시의 물리적환경이 범죄유형별 발생시점별 범죄발생에 미치는 영향

Abstract

The urban physical environment is expected to influence crime incidence. However, few studies have not fully investigated its differential impacts by crime type and occurrence time. This study employed the negative binomial regression models for the dependent variables on the number of reported crimes, located by the 400m×400m grid cell, by the type (theft and violence) and the time (day and night). In order to analyze influencing factors, the study measured urban environment factors such as building density by use, characteristics of buildings, river, and park, controlling such population measures as population and the ratio of elderly people. Our analysis results are summarized with some findings below. First of all, the urban physical environment determined a little bit more violence crimes than theft one and night crime than day one when comparing the sizes of pseudo R2s, explanatory powers for the models. Second, each physical environment measure play different roles on crime occurrence by its types and time. In conclusion, the study results indicate that it should be applied taking into account the type of crime in introducing the CPTED method leading to crime prevention effects in the city.