ПОТЕНЦИАЛ РАЗВИТИЯ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННОЙ СИСТЕМЫ РОССИЙСКОГО ХИМИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЛЕКСА

Abstract

The authors conducted a study, the results of which allow us to assess the resource base for the development of production systems of the Russian chemical complex with high objectivity. As a data source, the bundle “production – foreign trade – investments – personnel” was considered, and an intermediate period was chosen for analysis, corresponding to half of the implementation period of the chemical industry development program until 2030, since the main trends and dynamics of the work of domestic chemical industry enterprises have now been identified. The data assessment is based on the results of the study «Expert and analytical support for assessing the state of the Russian chemical complex and the performance targets of the implementation of the strategy for the development of the chemical and petrochemical complex for the period up to 2030» and the conclusions drawn by the authors based on the forecasts of the initial period of the implementation of the strategy. It is shown that the development of the chemical industry of the Russian Federation is changing taking into account the orientation to the current economic situation, which includes a reorientation to new markets (Asia, Latin America) and an emphasis on stimulating innovation and investment in import substitution of technologies and equipment. According to the authors’ forecasts, the development of the current stage from understated indicators by 2030 will reach the targets set by the Strategy for the Development of the Chemical and Petrochemical Complex for the period up to 2030. The dynamics of development was evaluated according to the basic and conservative scenarios. Conclusions are drawn: according to both the basic and conservative scenarios, a noticeable growth of the industry is expected from 2030; with an increase in the share of domestic bank lending in the structure of financing sources, the standard of living of the population and working conditions will contribute to the development of the personnel reserve of chemical complex enterprises.