РОЛЬ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ ВОЗДУХА В ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ КОРОНАВИРУСНОЙ ИНФЕКЦИЕЙ

Abstract

The study is aimed at solving an urgent problem of our time – obtaining new knowledge about the influence of various factors on the epidemiological situation in a particular region. An attempt was made to identify a possible statistical dependence of the epidemiological situation in the study region and meteorological factors (air temperature). To achieve the purpose of the study, the author used the archive of instrumental observations from the Roshydromet network of meteorological stations and official statistics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. In the course of the study, an analysis was performed of the time series of the incidence of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 and the series of meteorological parameters. Along with the series on the number of cases, data on the number of confirmed deaths from SARS-CoV-2 were involved. The author revealed statistical relationships between the incidence of the coronavirus infection in the Republic of Tatarstan and air temperature. The incubation period of the disease was taken into account by shifting the initial series relative to each other. A temporal delay in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 relative to changes in air temperature was found; analysis of the results obtained is provided. The author’s calculations indicate a statistically significant relationship between the number of detected cases and the average daily air temperature; a regression dependence was obtained. The reliability of the obtained results is due to the length of the accumulated series, which include daily data on the incidence for a period of one year. Uncertainty in the series of initial data of meteorological statistics can be explained by the introduction and subsequent strengthening of anti-epidemiological measures. The study can be continued as the series length increases and the coverage of the considered factors expands.