ОСОБЕННОСТИ МИГРАЦИИ «ОСНОВНОГО ПОКОЛЕНИЯ» ИЗ ЧЕЛЯБИНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Abstract

Workers are becoming the most important source of economic development in the conditions of knowledge production, and the direction of migration fl ows of the working population can be a reliable predictor of future growth or stagnation of the regional economy. In the structure of the able-bodied population, the so-called “core generation” (persons from 20 to 40 years old), whose infl uence on the future state and prospects of a particular region is most signifi cant. For Russia, ensuring the harmonious development of the entire territory is one of the most important national tasks, and its solution should be based on the most complete and reliable information. For this reason, the authors propose in the article a new approach to the analysis of migration processes at the level of the Russian region, based on an assessment of the outfl ow of representatives of the “main generation” and its individual age subgroups. The purpose of the article is to analyze the features of the outfl ow of representatives of the “main generation” in the Chelyabinsk region, neighboring regions and regions with similar specializations in 2017–21. The data of offi cial statistics of Rosstat were used in the work. The authors obtained the following results: the intensity of the outfl ow of representatives of the main generation (especially people from 25 to 35 years old) is many times higher in the Chelyabinsk region and regions similar in size and level of economic development, when compared with the average values for all ages. This indicates hidden from observation in terms of gross migration rates, which in the next 10–15 years can lead to a signifi cant reduction in the human and intellectual potential in these territories. The results of the study can be used by public authorities to improve the methodology for assessing migration processes, as well as by the academic community — to conduct similar studies on a wider range of indicators and territories.