지방정부 유형별 관광예산의 단절적 변동과 결정요인 분석

Abstract

This study aims to identify the punctuational change patterns in tourism budget and find the determinants of the punctuational changes. A total of 1,824 tourism budgets from 2008 to 2019 were collected from 152 local governments in South Korea. This study adjusted 25% to annual average growth rate of each budget and divided into three types of change patterns, which were used as dependent variables. The independent variables were identified using punctuation equilibrium theory and included focusing events (financial crisis in 2008), mega-events (two regional events), and institutional frictions (elections). A multinomial panel regression analysis was used for data analysis. The results showed that the elections, financial crisis, and regional events were the major determinants of punctuational changes. At city level, elections and regional events had an impact on the negative punctuational changes. At county level, the parliamentary elections had an impact on negative punctuational changes. Financial crisis had an impacts on both positive and negative punctuations. The results indicate that the punctuational changes are mainly caused by a lack of group who advocates and protects budget on tourism project as the status of tourism is lower than other functions in local government. The punctuational changes are more likely to happen for the small city which has limited budget. This study suggests that the stable budget growth for tourism depends on the local economic empowerment.