Паливна безпека України: виклики та шляхи подолання

Abstract

Guaranteeing fuel security is an integral part of the problem of ensuring the national security of each country, on which its socioeconomic stability and defense capability depend. Over the past 20 years, Ukraine has not paid much attention to strengthening fuel security, gradually losing its own oil refining complex. The article presents a methodical approach to assessing fuel security by components of the product balance of crude hydrocarbons and motor fuels of Ukraine and highlights how it changed in 2000–2021. This approach is based on 14 local indicators and allows identifying the fuel security challenges both by component and in general. It is found that the lack of government attention to fuel security issues led to the fact that initially part of the oil refining complex of Ukraine went into russian ownership, was extensively exploited, and products were exported even under conditions of import dependence of the domestic market of motor fuels. The absence of a balanced investment policy has made Ukrainian motor fuels uncompetitive and led to the closure of most of the industry’s enterprises. Consequently, the overall level of fuel security decreased from 61% in 2001 to 36% in 2020. The destruction of the last oil refining capacities as result of russian armed aggression turned Ukraine into a country with a zero resource cycle of motor fuel and reduced the level of fuel security to almost 0. Among the ways of strengthening Ukraine’s fuel security in the post-war period are considered both the conventional ones: through maximizing its own oil production and importing crude hydrocarbons from world markets, and the non-conventional ones, e. g.: developing a resource cycle of synthetic motor fuel based on coal raw materials.