Демографический потенциал Дальнего Востока: ожидания и реальность

Abstract

For almost three decades, the problem of the annual decline in the demographic potential of the Russian Far East has not lost its relevance. Joining the list of Russia's national priorities in the 21st century and the active state policy pursued in this regard for the accelerated development of the largest macro-region in the country did not lead to positive changes in the demographic trend. Despite different kinds of preferences for the potential Far-Easterners, their number does not cover the number of people leaving the Far East. The article analyzes the indicators characterizing the change in the demographic potential of the Far-Eastern federal district in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for a five-year period of an active policy of socio-economic development of the macro-region. The main components of natural movement of the population are considered. It is shown that the Russian Far East is characterized by the all-Russian tendency of a decline in the birth rate, caused by the deformation of the age composition of the population, primarily women of fertile age, changes in the intensity of fertility and its age profile. While comparable to the all-Russian general coefficient, the Far East is characterized by an increased mortality rate among the population of working age. Moreover, during the analyzed period, the gap between the average Russian and Far-Eastern mortality rate of the working-age population is growing for most causes of mortality. The high mortality rate of the working-age population is the main factor in the low life expectancy of the Far East. Comparison of real and predicted estimates of demographic potential established in the Concept of demographic policy of the Far East and the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation is carried out. As a result, it was found that expectations of the future demographic potential of the Far East laid down in the documents significantly exceed the real demographic capabilities of macro-region and will most likely remain unrealizable.