Համավարակային և հետհամավարակային տնտեսաֆինանսական զարգացումներն ու մարտահրավերները / Pandemic and post-pandemic economic and financial developments and challenges

Abstract

The 2020 pandemic had a shock effect on the economy and the stock market. Global GDP in 2021 surpassing the pre-covid level allows the 2020 recession to be described as a ``shock depression''. High short-term unemployment accompanied by widespread lockdowns has transformed into low natural unemployment and even labor shortages. Instead, sustained low inflation gave way to high, largely supply-driven inflation in the second half of 2021. Due to the large-scale injections of the economy, especially in the countries of the Anglo-American model, the progressive growth of the stock indices largely did not disrupt the long-lasting "bullish" trend. The pandemic did not stop the growth of global banking and non-banking financial assets, with some dominance of non-banking. From the second half of 2021, in connection with the increase in inflation and interest rates, accumulation of expectations of the "Minsk moment" was recorded in the stock markets. The main reason for the slowdown in global growth in 2022 is emerging challenges that have the potential to persist and deepen in 2023. In that regard, serious efforts are required from Armenia to maintain economic growth and capital market dynamics in the current year.