Взаимосвязь финансового развития и экономического роста России (2000–2022 годы)

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to establish a dynamic relationship between financial development, measured by the share of liquid liabilities to GDP, and the economic growth of the Russian Federation, measured as GDP per capita, for the period 2000-2022. Based on correlation analysis using the method of wavelet analysis, which allows us to identify empirical patterns in the relationship between variables on different time scales that cannot be detected traditional methods of time series analysis. The results of the study indicate that financial development in general led to economic growth in Russia in 2000-2022 and demonstrated the positive impact of financial development on economic growth, which is observed both in the short, medium and long term, alternating with the negative impact of financial development on economic activity in the short and medium term. This negative effect of financial development on the real sector of the country's economy is typical not only for Russia, but is especially relevant for low- and lower-middle-income countries. It was revealed that short- and medium-term negative effects later turn into positive effects in the long term, which is consistent, in particular, with the endogenous theory of growth. It is concluded that in the practical implementation of the liberalization policy aimed at financial development through financial deepening, it is necessary and important to distinguish between short-term, medium-term and long-term effects of financial development on economic development, given that the positive benefits obtained through financial deepening and liberalization are expected only if the economy is at a certain level the level of economic development, due, for example, to the formation of mature institutions.