Abstract
We present an iterative algorithm for the calculation of predicted values of the urban transport route network sections traffic. This algorithm is designed for use in automated design systems of urban passenger transport systems and based on accounting for the influence of the actual waiting time of a passenger at a bus stop point on the probability of choice of route alternative sets. Using this approach allows to increase the accuracy of the forecast for 5–10 %.
Highlights
Мы представляем итерационный алгоритм расчета прогнозных значений загрузки участков маршрутной сети системы городского транспорта
We present an iterative algorithm for the calculation of predicted values of the urban transport route network sections traffic
This algorithm is designed for use in automated design systems of urban passenger transport systems and based on accounting for the influence of the actual waiting time of a passenger at a bus stop point on the probability of choice of route alternative sets
Summary
Мы представляем итерационный алгоритм расчета прогнозных значений загрузки участков маршрутной сети системы городского транспорта. Данный алгоритм предназначен для применения в автоматизированных системах проектирования систем городского пассажирского транспорта и основан на учете влияния фактического времени ожидания пассажира на остановочном пункте на вероятность выбора им маршрута из множества альтернативных. Ключевые слова: пассажир, маршрут следования, вероятность выбора маршрута, привлекательность, время ожидания на остановке.
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