“Стратегия выхода”: генезис концепции сквозь трансформацию мирового порядка

Abstract

The transformation of the world order affects the stability of the international security system and forces nation states to intensify their efforts to develop mechanisms for preventing challenges and threats both during the transformation itself and after its completion. At the same time, political-military conflicts remain an integral element of any world order. And, paradoxically, they are the main threat to the world order. The article endeavors to analyze the features of the system of strategic planning and management of military operations under the administrations of R. Reagan and G. Bush. The choice of the period is due to, among other things, a significant similarity between the main challenges and threats relevant to the U.S. – USSR relations in that time and the U.S. – Russia relations today, which makes it possible to apply the comparative historical method of research. The purpose of the study is to identify, within the selected period, such systemic characteristics and factors, the use of which would be possible in modeling modern political and military conflicts, and would also contribute to the resolution of some of them. The particular attention is paid to the doctrine of C. Weinberger, the U. S. Secretary of Defense. The analysis of use of the American armed forces in 1981–1992 confirms the effectiveness of the Weinberger Doctrine. Moreover, with the assistance of C. Powell, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Weinberger Doctrine became the basis of a conceptual approach to politicalmilitary conflicts as an “exit strategy”. Today, in the context of the immutable nature of a political-military conflict, the Weinberger Doctrine and “exit strategy” deserve special attention of the scientific community and can become a solid foundation for forecasting, planning and mechanisms for resolving modern crisis situations, armed conflicts and wars.