Abstract

Climate change caused by global warming has increased the number of severe damages by torrential rains in South Korea. With this concern, the rainfall design, which takes climate changes into account, is necessary for designing safe and sustainable hydraulic structures to prevent such damages. This study conducted statistical testing of all rainfall data located at six rainfall stations in Geum river basin. Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Root Mean Square Error were used to apply five probability distributions (PT3, GPA, GNO, GEV, GLO) to the statistical testing results. The analysis of climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, showed that the probability of rainfall increased as the period gradually increased to 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. The study of probability rainfall considering climate change scenarios can be utilized as a rough guideline for flood and drought prevention. It can also make an ultimate contribution to plans for designing safe and sustainable hydraulic structures and water resources.

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