Abstract
A method for assessing the current load capacity of a component of a complex mechanical system based on the failure statistics of similar parts and the actual loading history is proposed. A hidden semi-Markov model of a fatigue crack is considered. As a criterion for the load capacity, the safety factor is considered as a random variable, the distribution function of which is found by the proposed method. The scaling of the approach from detail to the system as a whole is assumed using artificial intelligence methods.
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