Влияние эффекта колеи на эволюцию промышленных ареалов России

Abstract

The article examines the influence of natural history and socio-cultural processes on the formation of industrial areas within the borders of modern Russia and partially the Russian Empire and the USSR. Basically, the evolutionary approach is used in the version of cyclic genetic dynamics. To assess the long-term effects of the “path dependence”, we analyze the 150-year cycle of industrialization within the borders of Historical Russia. To do this, we use the mechanisms of spatial localization of Kondratiev cycles and associated technological structures of the first (first-second), second (third-fourth)) and the third (fifth) industrial revolution. As an information base, data on the number of people employed and the volume of industrial production (in comparable prices) are used, and for the XX century, data on the dynamics of fixed assets of industry are also used. The relationship between modernization schemes on the old basis (within the boundaries of old industrial areas) and in the areas of pioneer development is revealed. The stability of industry specializations within the grid of industrial areas is considered separately. Based on the results obtained, the conclusion is made about the stability of old industrial cores of localization of industrial potential, the continuity of the spectrum of their specializations (not the replacement of old industries with new ones, but the addition). There is also a repetition in the regions of the new development of the General scheme of the chosen path and the inherited track.