Экономическое развитие в «ловушке» роста: случай Дальнего Востока

Abstract

We discuss the issue arising from the stalling of the new economic policy implemented in the Russian Far East in the context of the dichotomy between economic development and economic growth. We consider the actual difference in the economic content of these two components of the objective function of regional economic dynamics. It is demonstrated that the difference in the internal content of these two components determines, in turn, the difference in economic policy itself and determines the fact that such economic policy itself is internally contradictory. We argue that the order of ‘steps’, through which the regional economic policy is implemented, plays the key role and the final result is determined directly and clearly by the way the order of objectives set in the objective function: ‘growth and development’ or ‘development and growth’. Three waves of economic dynamics of the Far East over a 150-year period are demonstrated, and a question of whether it is possible to move on to the fourth wave is raised. We also assess the most likely outcomes of the current policy which are exaggerated development of the resource sector, stalling of the growth of endogenous aggregate demand and the inability to switch to endogenous growth, the dominance of the parameters of external and national growth over the parameters of economic growth in the region, and stagnation of the parameters of economic development in the region. We determine the main reason for the discussed outcomes: the gap between the resources that should generate development and growth, and the demand that should accumulate these resources and transform them into development results that must eventually become the basis of economic growth