Построение прогнозной модели при диагностике и лечении бесплодия

Abstract

In this work, the tasks of creating a method for clinical prediction of diagnosis and treatment of infertility are formulated and solved. The existing forecasting models for overcoming infertility are considered. Their advantages and disadvantages are determined. The latter are both in the complexity of accounting and forecasting the individual possibilities for conception of the estimated married couples, and in the conservatism of the medical and applied computing technologies used, which reduces the quality and efficiency of forecasts. The structure of infertility is shown after a comprehensive examination of patients over a long period. Five groups of patients were identified, taking into account the characteristics, duration and other causes of infertility. The concepts of the coefficient of reproductive activity (CRA), the indicator of reproductive health (RPH) and the indicator of reproductive readiness (PRH) are introduced, a variant of the calculation of these values is proposed, and the ranges of their possible values are indicated. The PRG was proposed as a key characteristic for clinical prediction in overcoming infertility. Its values can be projected into four groups of outcomes in the diagnosis and treatment of infertility, three of which involve direct referral to a specialized medical institution. The article presents a generalized algorithm for the use of PRG in the predictive activity of doctor Practical recommendations for the use of the PRG by the patient are given. In addition, a computational experiment was carried out to calculate the values of PRG for several patients with further analysis of the results obtained.