기후변화에 따른 산불 조심 기간의 재설정에 관한 연구

Abstract

As a consequence of the globally pervasive high-temperature and drought conditions induced by climate change. Worldwide, efforts are underway to quantitatively assess and evaluate wildfire seasons. In South Korea, despite the strategic designation of precautionary intervals during peak-risk seasons(spring and autumn), the escalating incidence of wildfires beyond these delineated periods necessitates a paradigm shift. According to this study, the past 30 years' wildfire occurrence frequency reveals an escalating ratio of wildfires during non-precautionary periods compared to designated periods. Concurrently, an examination of the variations in the Fire Weather Index(FWI) demonstrates an increase from 10.6 pre-2000 to 13.4 post-2000. The empirical evidence is substantiated by climate change scenario outcomes(HAPPI), indicating an expansion of the wildfire precautionary periods(3 days in spring and 2 weeks in autumn). Consequently, considering the mounting wildfire risk as evidenced by current and future predictive analyses, an imperative for an extension and augmentation of the wildfire precautionary periods in South Korea is underscored.