Моделирование взаимосвязей ресурсы противопожарной службы – характеристики пожарной безопасности

Abstract

The problem of building of mathematical models which describe indicators of fire service activities with parameters of fire safety is considered. Inadequate development of such models is marked. Both information support statistical bases of Vietnam and the territory differing significantly in various fire situations are used. Exponential analytical dependences between the relative characteristics reflecting specific loads of firefighters on the number of fires and specific parameters of an economic damage as well as a death toll and the injured people in the fires are received. These dependences can effectively be applied in the solution of tasks in the field of short-term forecasting of fire safety; evaluation of dead and injured peoples in fires; optimal territorial and dynamic allocation of fire service staff resources to minimize the economic damage caused by fires, as well as minimizing number of peoples dead and injured in the fires. Besides authors suggest to use in the solution of specified tasks models and methods developed in the active systems theory. The received analytical dependences with a sufficient accuracy (74-89 %) describe empirical data. A process of the fire service staff subsystems activity is represented in terms of entrance - resources - results . The formulation of tasks is performed and criteria of optimal fire service staff resources management in dynamic and territorial aspects are discussed. It is indicated that further modeling directions should focus on the development of integrated staff resource management criteria for fire service, allowing assessing its activities under stable operating conditions, and in cases of significant changes in fire situation. In addition, it is concluded that the implementation of the system approach fire service activities must take into account not only the work on the fire, but also the prevention of fires, including a large-scale advertising and educational activities, interaction with insurance companies related to fire risk and other aspects of combating fires.