ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ПОСТКОНФЛІКТНИХ СУСПІЛЬСТВ: ДОСВІД КРАЇН КОЛИШНЬОЇ ЮГОСЛАВІЇ

Abstract

The article shows the demographic losses of the states of the former Yugoslavia in the wars of the 1990s and analyzes the trends of the post-war demographic development of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia, and the partially recognized state of Kosovo. Before the start of the wars, the second demographic transition was largely completed in these countries, and the birth rate approached the average European value. There was no significant reduction in the total birth rate in the countries of the Balkan region during armed conflicts. Only in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, there was a noticeable decrease in the number of births due to large migratory losses of reproductive cohorts. The impact of the war was manifested in the accelerated transformation of the age-related birth rate, there was a decrease in the early birth rate against the background of an aging motherhood. It was established that in the post-war societies of the Balkan region, except Serbia, there was no compensatory increase in the birth rate. The birth rate in the countries of the former Yugoslavia changed synchronously with those European states that experienced deep economic crises or geopolitical transformations, in particular, joined the EU. Structural and demographic transformations in post-conflict societies are studied. It was found that during the war, the rate of decline in the share of the child population and the rate of demographic aging were higher than the European average. The long-term dynamics of the age structure of the population of the modern post-conflict countries of the former Yugoslavia do not differ in the main parameters from other European countries. It was established that the main factor in reducing the population of the region is forced external migration. The largest specific weight of emigrants from the number of permanent population is in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In these countries, unresolved ethnopolitical problems destabilize the development of society in general, negatively affect the processes of natural reproduction, and act as a deterrent to the return of migrants. Taking into account the analogies of the post-conflict societies of the Balkan region, as well as taking into account the crisis parameters of the demographic situation before the full-scale war of 2022, the scenarios of the demographic development of Ukraine are built. They are due exclusively to probable migration trends. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the demographic development of Ukraine are determined by several external and internal factors. Recommendations regarding the basic principles of the policy of re-emigration of Ukrainian refugees have been provided.