Ռուս-ուկրաինական թնջուկ. ինչպե՞ս է դիրքավորվում աշխարհը/Complex Problem of Russian-Ukrainian Relations։ What Position do the Countries of the World Take?

Abstract

Any political, military or economic event taking place in the post-COVID world can radically change our understanding, both in terms of identifying the origins of this or that event, and in terms of assessing its motives and predicting the final result. The challenge of the Covid pandemic revealed common gaps in anti-crisis management in force majeure situations, and as a result of a chaotic information collapse, the phenomenon of an aggressive reaction of some people to the performance of seemingly primitive domestic and disciplinary duties was revealed. In other words, two “armies” of believers and non-believers formed around the same phenomenon. The main reason for this disagreement was the controversial information "terrorism", which developed a certain negative attitude towards all the planned mandatory measures that were carried out in order to ensure a safe, quality life and human health. And now, not yet fully freed from the nightmare of covid fears, the world in the form of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is plunging into a new long nightmare. In this case, unlike the previous one, there is no common joint decision regarding this event, even in those associations or organizations whose unanimous opinion was effectively used as the main trump card in such "force majeure" or crisis situations. Any military conflict is a catastrophe with a huge amount of human and material losses. Regardless of their scale, they all have in common a high probability of repetition, as the role of winner and loser becomes very relative over a long historical time. Proof of this are the two world wars of the 20th century, when the winners changed, and active “hot” wars were followed by “cold” phases, the logical outcome of which was to return to the “hot” phase at the right time, with almost the same players. However, in this periodic chain, due to the logic of the “cold” phase, positions and roles could change and it is possible that those who previously contributed on one front would find themselves in opposite “trenches”. Armenia, which currently has an unresolved Artsakh issue, unfriendly relations with at least two of its four neighboring countries, and unresolved border issues, has also found itself in a similar trap. Realizing the impossibility of a final solution to the conflict by military means, as well as understanding the consequences of our position concerning the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, we need to quickly conduct the most accurate analysis of the external and internal situation by developing possible outcome scenarios. Without this, it is impossible to get out of the complex process of changing the world order, having received only “light scratches”. In order to draw up a "road map" and a schedule of our further actions, first of all, it is necessary to have a clear idea of how the countries and regions of the world are located in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and what the motives and arguments for this position are. It should also be taken into account that the situations that arise in the future will not only be vital for Armenia in their essence, but will also contain a pronounced existential component.