ТЕНДЕНЦИИ РАЗВИТИЯ ВНЕШНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ СВЯЗЕЙ КИТАЙСКОЙ НАРОДНОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКИ В 2024 – 2030 ГГ.

Abstract

The article analyzes trends in the development of foreign economic relations of the People’s Republic of China in 2024 – 2030. Analysis of trends in the distribution of Chinese exports and imports by countries and regions of the world suggests that the distribution of Chinese exports and imports by countries and regions of the world until 2030 will tend to increase the share of Asian countries. The share of North American and Western European countries in the distribution of Chinese exports and imports across countries and regions of the world will remain either unchanged or will decline. Russia’s share in the distribution of Chinese exports and imports by country will tend to increase until 2030. An analysis of the capabilities of the People’s Republic of China to realize the trade and investment potential of import substitution of products in the economy of the Russian Federation in the future until 2030 suggests that Russian imports from China may increase by 2025 to 80.82 billion dollars, and by 2030 to 85 08 billion dollars, which will ensure the realization of the trade potential of import substitution in the Russian economy by 84.79% and 89.26%, respectively. At the same time, direct investments by the PRC in the domestic national economy can increase the realization of the import substitution potential in the Russian economy to 89.25% and 98.85%, respectively. However, the share of high-tech products when China realizes its trade and investment potential for import substitution in the economy of the Russian Federation will remain low. At the same time, the level of scientific and technical development of basic production (technologies for execution, provision) of goods (work, services) imported from China and produced (performed, provided) as a result of direct investment from this country into the Russian economy, until 2030, will tend to increasing. China will thus largely be able to realize its trade and investment potential for import substitution of high-tech products in the domestic economy by 2030.