Проблемы, риски, тенденции развития мировой экономики в начале 2022 года и механизмы ретрансляции негативных воздействий мировой экономической системы в российскую экономику

Abstract

The article discusses the problems, risks, trends in the development of the world economy at the beginning of 2022 and the mechanisms translating the negative impacts of the world economic system to the Russian economy in the context military special operation in Ukraine and increased sanctions pressure. Goal. To identify and analyze new problems, risks and trends in the development of the world economy after the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, as well as mechanisms for relaying the negative impacts of the world economic system to the Russian economy in new conditions. Objectives. Analysis of the impact of the military conflict in Ukraine on the main macroeconomic indicators of the development of the world economy; study of the socio-economic consequences of the conflict in Ukraine on individual countries, groups of countries and regions; analysis of new sanctions measures imposed against Russia by other countries; analysis of the impact of new sanctions measures and negative impacts of the world economic system on the main macroeconomic indicators of the development of the Russian economy. Methodology. The methods of system analysis, classification and comparison, evolutionary-institutional theory and historical approach were applied in the course of the study. Results. Despite the fact that the conflict in Ukraine is local and only two countries are directly involved in the fighting, occupying a fairly small share in world GDP and world trade, the socio-economic consequences of this conflict are global in nature and will affect most regions and countries of the world. This is due to the fact that Russia and Ukraine are the main suppliers to the world markets of a number of raw materials and agricultural goods. In 2022, a rather serious reduction in the main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy is predicted. Such deep rates of decline in GDP and gross fixed capital accumulation have not been observed in Russia since the crisis of 2009 and the transformational crisis of the early 1990s. Conclusions. One of the main challenges for the Russian economy at the moment is the issue of the ability of structural adjustment to move away from commodity dependence in the face of sanctions restrictions on the export of new technologies to Russia and the outflow of highly qualified specialists from the country.