Развитие подходов к установлению причины пожара: от начала 20 века до наших дней

Abstract

Purpose. The article examines the evolution of approaches to determining the immediate cause of fires in Russia based on a retrospective analysis of scientific and methodological works from 1906 to the present. It is revealed that currently, the basis for reasoning aimed at establishing the cause of a fire is the abductive method, in which hypotheses about their probable causes are formulated based on known consequences. At the same time, a complex of organically interconnected signs of a fire manifests and changes depending on the stage of fire development; it can arise under the influence of various causes and, significantly, reflect the peculiarities of the object's reaction to the fire. In this regard, there is a need to develop more advanced approaches to forming versioning conclusions when establishing the cause of a fire during fire-technical expertise, which would minimize the limitations described above. To develop such an approach, a retrospective analysis of activities for establishing the cause of a fire was carried out, as well as the analysis and selection of logical methods for its determination. Methods. The scientific basis of the research was provided by system analysis, methods of information synthesis, and expert analysis. Findings. The analysis showed that from 1906 to 2018 in our country the main method of investigating the circumstances related to the occurrence of fires is abductive reasoning (versioning analysis). There is a database in which each specific cause of a fire is implicatively linked to a set of signs arising in a fire that occurred for this reason. Research application field. The obtained results can be used in further development of methods for identifying the cause of fires. Conclusions. The study showed that the abductive approach to proposing versions of the causes of fires in the 20th–21st centuries has proved to be productive; the probability of abductive conclusions increased in various directions (through computer modeling – scenario approach, in technical aspects – involving physico-chemical analysis, etc.). Schemes for conducting versioning research to establish the cause of a fire at the initial and modern stages have been developed. The development of methods for identifying the cause of fires may consist of expanding and detailing the theoretical basis of versions, improving mathematical models and their informational support, as well as developing algorithms for comparing theoretical and factual bases of versions to form an expert conclusion – versioning conclusion.