МНОГОФАКТОРНЫЙ КОГНИТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ЗАЩИЩЕННОСТИ ОБЪЕКТОВ КУЛЬТУРНО-ИСТОРИЧЕСКОГО НАСЛЕДИЯ РОССИИ

Abstract

This article studies the issue of preserving the cultural and historical heritage of Russian cities in the face of a significant expansion of the range of threats, changes in the conditions of financing and economic activity. Analysis and ranking of risk factors for violation of the appearance and characteristics of objects of cultural and historical heritage make it possible to determine the most effective methods and means of mitigating threats and develop an optimal protection strategy. The application of analytical methods of factor analysis to solve those issues is difficult due to the qualitative nature and heterogeneity of risk factors. It is shown that the method of cognitive modeling and multivariate analysis based on a fuzzy cognitive map, which is a special type of semantic network, can be used to identify the subject area. To illustrate the proposed approach, the author opted for the State Memorial and Natural Reserve Museum-estate of L.N. Tolstoy “Yasnaya Polyana”, located in the Tula region. For the numerical solution of the issue, the author’s method of multivariate cognitive analysis based on the use of fuzzy cognitive maps by V.B. Silov. When identifying a fuzzy cognitive map, three groups of concepts were identified: threat factors; methods and means of protection; target factors. After transforming the original cognitive matrix to a transitive-closed form, the system indicators of the fuzzy cognitive map are calculated. As a result, the concepts that have a dominant weight influence on the protection of the Museum-estate “Yasnaya Polyana” are determined. The results of the study make it possible to substantiate a set of effective measures aimed at preserving the chosen object of cultural and historical heritage.