ФАКТОРНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ САРАТОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Abstract

The study presents an original deterministic factor model of socio-demographic development of rural areas of the Saratov region, based on the calculation of an integral indicator that depends on the influence of the most significant indicators on demographic indicators of population reproduction and social processes that significantly expand the scope of their practical application. The development of a four-stage deterministic factor model was based on the relationship between the level of socio-demographic development of rural territories and indicators that have a direct impact on social (material conditions and quality of life of the rural population) and demographic (indicators of reproduction of the rural population) processes in dynamics, which allows us to assess the weight of the influence of each of them on the level of socio-demographic development of rural territories of the region. Using the calculation of weighting coefficients based on expert assessments, a rating of settlements in the Saratov region was compiled in the context of 38 municipal districts, followed by their distribution into three groups - stable (the first 10 districts in the rating), unstable (18 districts) and tense (the last 10 districts in the rating). The group of stressed areas is represented by the centers of socio-demographic disadvantage in the region, in which there are high rates of unemployment and migration of the population. To stabilize the situation, we studied the database of vacancies at agricultural enterprises of the Saratov region and calculated the reserve for increasing the employment of the rural population, with the help of which positive changes occurred in the rating – an increase in the number of stable districts (Yershovsky, Kalininsky and Rivne were added) and a decrease in tense districts (Ivanteevsky and Baltaysky moved to the middle group).