Abstract
Introduction. At the current level of development of research in the field of artificial intelligence, it is defined as a set of technological solutions that allow simulating cognitive functions, obtaining results comparable to the results of human intellectual activity. In this regard, the problem arises of creating a technology that imitates the cognitive functions of analyzing the state of objects when the conditions of their functioning change. Analysis of the status of objects in the different problems of environmental, technical, social, political and other nature is carried out most often on information models. The peculiarity of their solution lies in the fact that it is necessary, as a rule, to restore indefinite, sometimes not amenable to quantitative analysis, dependencies and patterns. Since full-scale experiments in these subject areas are often impossible, and sometimes very expensive and even dangerous, the only research method in this case is a thought experiment using the method of experimental perturbations of the state of an object. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to create a method of cognitive modelling based on a thought experiment for the problem of assessing the state of an object from incomplete and fuzzy data. Methods. To implement the method of cognitive modelling based on a thought experiment, the method of a mental complete factor experiment (MСFE) is applied using the method of experimental perturbations. Results. To implement the method of cognitive modelling based on a mental experiment, a procedure has been created that evaluates the state (behaviour) of an object in a present or anticipated future situation based on the method of a mental complete factor experiment (MСFE) using the method of experimental perturbations. The developed procedure makes it possible to obtain solutions to the problem of predicting the state of a certain object in the future using incomplete and fuzzy data and using an expert “built in” to evaluate the forecasting results. Conclusion. The results of the research presented in this article, which are conceptual in nature, show the possibility of creating elements of technology that imitate the cognitive functions of analyzing the state of objects when changing the conditions of their functioning using a thought experiment. The developed method can be used to solve the problems of assessing the state of various objects when creating intelligent information analysis systems in order to obtain new knowledge about the object.
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