МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ ЛЕСНОГО ДОХОДА ПРИ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОМ ПЛАНИРОВАНИИ

Abstract

The paper considers methodological approaches to planning and forecasting payments for the use of forests in the budget system of the Russian Federation. According to the results of scientific research, it has been established that the currently used approach to planning income receipts to the state budget is based on the use of the achieved level of received forest payments for a three-year retrospective period and its indexation to the planned values of the consumer price index in accordance with the forecast of socio-economic development of the country. It is noted that this approach can be applied to planning future receipts of forest payments in the short term: for 1-3 years of planning. At the same time, for medium- and long-term forecasting (3-10 years), a more detailed approach is required, taking into account the contractual obligations of persons using forests of a long-term nature. In addition, it is proposed to use a corrective risk factor for termination of contracts when forecasting forest revenue receipts to the budget system of the Russian Federation. The proposed approach will improve the quality and accuracy of medium- and long-term forecasting of forest income.