Оценка альтернатив: новые подходы принятия решений в условиях определенности

Abstract

The decision-making process plays an important role in the development of society in general and the effective management of organizations in particular. In today's world, where the complexity of tasks and the competitive environment are constantly growing, making the right and informed decisions becomes a key element of success. Any person, group of people or organization is constantly faced with the need to choose between several possible courses of action, called alternatives, whether in the personal sphere or in the work of organizations. To effectively make complex decisions within the activities of organizations, models for making optimal decisions have been developed. The most popular of them is the model of decision-making under conditions of certainty, when the outcome of the decision is not influenced by random factors. All this confirms the relevance of scientific research in the field of decision making. Aim. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the degree of attractiveness of alternatives based on objective quantitative or subjective qualitative criteria, which will improve the quality of decisions made. The methodology is based on mathematical models for processing information containing the characteristics of alternatives according to evaluation criteria. Materials and methods. The methodology for evaluating alternatives presented in the work is based on mathematical models of information processing, which are based on methods of mathematical modeling, optimization methods, linear programming, theory of fuzzy sets, theory of latent variables, as well as methods of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and methods of expert assessment. Results. The relevance of the development of a model for evalua¬ting construction projects according to quantitative criteria is shown, ways of solving the tasks are given and justified. A mathematical model has been developed that makes it possible to evaluate construction projects by objective indicators based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the Rush model for estimating latent variables. On the basis of numerical methods, the adequacy of the received estimates of construction projects is substantiated, the methodology for implementing computational procedures necessary for the practical implementation of evaluation models is described. Conclusion. The application of the given methodology in the decision-making procedure under conditions of certainty will improve the quality of decisions made and reduce the risks of their implementation.