Прямые иностранные инвестиции и западноевропейская интеграция: некоторые циклические факторы

Abstract

This article examines some current problems of EU and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Also this article generalize and illustrate in new way long waves hypothesis. The author suggests a non-customary approach to the study and forecasting of the economic life within the framework of Kondratieff approaches. Cyclical patterns were successfully used by the author in the business and in the banking sphere. Taking into account long waves, in 2009 the author warned about the possible economic crises in Russia in 2014-2015, 2020 and such crises actually happened. The aim of this article is the systematization and the adaptation of long waves approaches to the study of many acute economic problems. The hypothesis of long waves was used by the author but only as a general empirical reference point. It touches on many actual problems of world development, including the decrease of global FDI and the growth of centrifugal forces in the EU. The question is raised about the large-scale spread of coronavirus. The rapid spread of COVID-19 could have been connected with high global instability in addition to other well-known factors. Taking into account Kondratieff’s waves and many years of the author’s experience in the Russian business and in the Russian banking sphere, the author touches on a long unfavorable period of economic instability in Russian economy. Some economic advices to regulators and business in Russia are provided. Also the author concludes that it is necessary to continue studying the Kondratieff long wave hypothesis with the aim of its further successful use in forecasting.