Региональная динамика доходов и потребительского спроса населения в России

Abstract

The analysis of regional income and consumer expenses dynamics is very important to estimate the stability of the economy. The 2015–2018 analysis shows that the economy of the country and households had adapted to the external price shock of 2015, which is confirmed by the following trends. After a decrease in real income and demand for goods (especially non-food ones) in 2015–2016, the situation changed in the beginning of 2018: the demand in most regions increased, although its growth is weaker than the growth of real wages and nominal household income. Most regions by types and federal districts show similar increase, which supports economy’s stability. In 2015–2017 the growth of nominal population income was seen in all types of regions except export-oriented ones (–0.1% in 2017). The highest growth rates were seen in less developed agricultural (+3.0%), medium-developed agricultural and industrial regions (+3.0%) and developed industrial-agricultural (+2.5%). In 2013–2017, about two thirds of the consumer potential were provided by highly developed and developed regions. The three regions with most potential by type were financial and economic centers (27–28% of the total consumer potential in Russia), agricultural-industrial regions (18–20%) and diversified regions (15–16%). The real retail trade turnover in 2017 increased in all types of regions. Real retail sales decreased only in 17 regions. In 2017–2018, the share of food goods in retail trade started decreasing slowly, which indicates gradual restoration of pre-crisis demand structure