Концептуальне моделювання розвитку виробництва синтетичного рідкого палива в Україні

Abstract

The article is devoted to conceptual modeling of the development of synthetic liquid fuel production in Ukraine. Conceptual models of development, as well as its scientific, analytical, institutional and organizational support are substantiated. A system of principles and tasks of modeling under the conditions of implementation of certain scenarios has been developed, the basis of which is the political and economic position of the country, which corresponds to: the wartime and post-wartime states, the period of recovery and stabilization of the economy. The factors and results of the development of the national production of synthetic liquid motor fuel (SLMF), system relationships between the elements of the models are determined. In general, the modeling complex is an integral system of conceptual provisions for the use of available resources, the creation of production, the organization and control of the results of investment and economic activity. The article carries out several simulations, completing them by a parametric model of development of production of synthetic liquid motor fuel, which, on the basis of data on the formed scenarios, made it possible to prove that the development of the production of SLMF in Ukraine can ensure a reduction in the country’s external oil dependence from 12 to 17%.