После А. аз-Завахири: изменится ли «кибердоктрина» «Аль-Каиды»?

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the phenomenon of Al-Qaeda’s* “Cyberdoctrine”, which was formulated by Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second leader of the group, and regulated the activities of jihadists in the digital space in the period from 2011 to 2022. It should be emphasized that this topic has not yet received wide coverage in specialized literature, although it is relevant against the backdrop of the radicals' desire to strengthen their positions in cyberspace. The chronological framework of the study covers the period from 2012 (formulation of the “Cyberdoctrine”) to 2022 (liquidation of A. al-Zawahiri). Within the specified period, the author analyzes the key stages in the transformation of the “Сyberdoctrine”, identifying its characteristic features. The author comes to the conclusion that A. al-Zawahiri’s “Cyberdoctrine” is based on propaganda and recruitment instruments in the digital space, while other aspects of activity are given less attention, including due to the lack of professional hackers in the ranks of jihadists. The author also draws attention to the fact that the death of A. al-Zawahiri entails a reassessment of the strategy of Al-Qaeda*. The content of the new “Cyberdoctrine” will depend, first of all, on the personal views of the new head of the group, which is why it can be seriously rethought. Several scenarios are proposed for the further development of the situation, the most likely of which is the preservation of the ideological foundations of the “Cyberdoctrine” and, as a result, the former emphasis on propaganda work.